Prognostications

We are well and truly fucked. With a bit of help from my degrees, a batch of predictions for the US economy and political system over the next few months. Since nobody ever reads this any other time, if you're here, I'm right on at least one! Neat!! We are well and truly fucked!

Likely
Uh, we default!
A last minute (like seriously last minute) compromise is reached, and bad things happen to poor John Boehner's political career. Which - fuck you. Good riddance.

A number of Tea Party Republicans have an epiphany, realize they don't know their ass from a hole in the ground, and start to do what their Uncle John tells them to. (That would be entertaining.) Including stopping calling the president a fanatical socialist. These people are so damn retarded, it hurts me to even contemplate it. 

Not really likely, but you could totally see it coming
We default

• Paralleling the catastrophic collapse of the 1930s, an American default, drives the economy into a halt in 3-4 weeks, and takes down the rest of the world's with it. The parallels in terms of concentration, stagnation and the drop of consumer demand is kind of spooky
• Or - in the immediate aftermath, a compromise is reached that is ultimately cosmetic change, and despite themselves, the damage to the economy long-term is only modest. Markets stay jumpy, recovery languishes, and Krugman was right all along. "Lost Decade." 

14th Amendment

• Obama invokes the 14th Amendment, does something (???), debt crisis in immediate term avoided, public chastising of Republicans, Wall St. notices "Holy shit these people are fuckingcrazy" and a degree of sanity returns.
• Likelier: Obama is impeached by House, acquitted by Senate by a wide margin. Or worse. And this thought really freaks me out.

Definitely going to happen
 Republicans, who always bewail the "United States becoming a second-rate country!" are actually GOING TO ACHIEVE just that. And it's going to be all on them. The spending cuts in any "deal" which they now care about will be draconian, aimed at the places and people that can afford it least.

In the long term, cuts in important investments - oh, like education, people's health, infrastructure, research (for things other than killing people) - are going to exact much more than a financial toll. Less smarter kids (lots of them are already 'dum') does not a growing society make.

And the Republicans will blame it on women working, abortion, gays marrying [Good for you, New York! As a resident of MA, with two heterosexually-married sisters with families who are thriving, the world will not end!], and to a (hopefully plateauing) minority, they'll be believed.

We're fucked.